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MarkB
Fri Jan 08 2021, 08:33p.m.
Mark Blume

Registered Member #81
Joined: Mon Oct 14 2013, 08:54a.m.

Posts: 1980
The problem with using KRFL player salary is they are many times not reflective of a players true value. Early in their career if a player was signed to a longer KRFL contract, he is very likely to have a much lower salary that what he would have if he had been drafted in the free agent draft that season. Conversely, older players tend to have higher KRFL salaries than their actual value, particularly if their play has declined quickly, they got badly injured....

In 2020, the five teams with the lowest KRFL salaries averaged 6.4 wins. The five teams with the highest KRFL salaries averaged 9.4 wins. Inverness, who did not win a single game had the 10th highest KRFL salary. Atlanta, who had the fourth lowest salary, had 10 wins and won their division.

Therefore, I don't think a minimum KRFL salary would make a difference. Hence why I though using the Action PC salaries for the draft position determination may make more since. And no, I have not had time to go back to the beginning of the 2020 season to see what the draft order would have been under my trial balloon idea (sorry). Having said that, I do think we should consider a minimum team salary as another way to discourage (particularly a brand new member) from severely tanking.

Here are 2020 season ending salaries lowest to highest:
Team Wins Salary
KUT 8 $75.50
SAL 4 $75.50
WAR 5 $78.50
ATL 10 $80.20
BAY 5 $80.35
ALA 9 $81.20
MOL 5 $81.35
BLK 6 $82.05
WSS 6 $82.35
EDI 8 $82.80
BEN 7 $83.00
DES 10 $83.30
PEN 11 $83.50
SWF 16 $84.00
INV 0 $84.40
KEN 2 $84.60
BAR 7 $84.85
VAN 12 $85.50
CLE 13 $86.75
RGG 6 $86.90
TAM 9 $87.20
SEA 11 $87.30
PIT 8 $87.65
NYH 13 $87.80

And here are team salaries sorted by Wins
Team Wins Salary
INV 0 $84.40
KEN 2 $84.60
SAL 4 $75.50
WAR 5 $78.50
BAY 5 $80.35
MOL 5 $81.35
BLK 6 $82.05
WSS 6 $82.35
RGG 6 $86.90
BEN 7 $83.00
BAR 7 $84.85
KUT 8 $75.50
EDI 8 $82.80
PIT 8 $87.65
ALA 9 $81.20
TAM 9 $87.20
ATL 10 $80.20
DES 10 $83.30
PEN 11 $83.50
SEA 11 $87.30
VAN 12 $85.50
CLE 13 $86.75
NYH 13 $87.80
SWF 16 $84.00
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MarkB
Sun Jan 10 2021, 12:27p.m.
Mark Blume

Registered Member #81
Joined: Mon Oct 14 2013, 08:54a.m.

Posts: 1980
Ok, so I created an Excel worksheet that took the 2020 Pre-Roster Cut-Down rosters and determined by 2020 Action PC Football salaries for each player. Please note this took me about two hours as it was, but it would have taken me much longer to re-create the league file as it existed at that time (wish I had saved it, will in the future). However, I can guarantee this is not 100% accurate because some players changed names from season to season (Gurley III vs. Gurley for example) and if I did not catch it, in my worksheet it assigned those players an Action PC Football salary of the minimum $350,000. There were not that many name changes, and I think I got the more valuable players, so I do not think it materially changes the results, but it does mean it is not 100% accurate.

Below is the detail table of the results of what the 2020 draft positions would have been under my proposal and how many draft positions each team would have moved from the current rule. (I wish I could post a picture of the table with better formatting, sorry. I think I will email it to everyone).

Some interesting / important results to consider when looking at the table:
> We would have had four different teams in the draft lottery for the first pick. Instead of West Seattle, Kentucky, Cleveland and Salem, it would have been Barcelona, Bensalem, Kutztown and Inverness.
>>>>Those four teams averaged 9 wins, including one team that made the playoffs.
>>>> One of the teams that had been in the draft lottery would have drafted 20th instead of 4th. The other three would be drafting 9th, 10th and 12th.
So this proposal likely would really shake up who the four lottery teams are.

> Since this proposal ignores whether teams made the playoffs the prior season or not, except for the prior season league champion and runner up, there would have been some pretty substantial changes:
>>>> The biggest change is 18 positions, from #19 as a prior season play off team to being in the draft lottery.
>>>> Three teams would have moved up 13 positions, one of which from #15 into the draft lottery.
>>>> The WildCard playoff game losing teams would have drafted lottery team, #15, #18 and #22 vs. #12-#15. So three of the four drop positions. The team making the lottery is due to many large expiring player contracts.
>>>> The Divisional playoff game losing teams would have drafted lottery team, #5, #14, #21 instead of #17-#20. So three of the four gain positions. The team making the lottery is due to many large expiring player contracts.
>>>> Because of so many players with expiring contracts after the 2019 season, had New York not been the 2019 league runner-up, it would have been in the 2020 draft lottery as it had the lowest team Action PC Football team salary.

So, the one thing this proposal would do is shake up the draft lottery system and result in a team losing a lot of games, whether because the team was poor or the coach tanked the season, not being guaranteed being in the draft lottery or have a top ten draft position. Conversely, a prior season playoff team with a bunch of expiring contracts of valuable players, players retiring or being injured, could end up having a top ten draft pick or even be a lottery team.

So there you go. Let the discussion begin. Keep it civil and respectful.

Columns are:
Team
2019 Wins, including playoffs
Original 2020 Draft Position
2020 Pre-Roster Cuts Action PC Football Salary
Rank Based on 2020 Pre-Roster Cuts Action PC Football Salary
2020 Draft Position Under Proposal
Change in Draft Position
Notes
BAR 13 19 $67.459 2 1 18 In Lottery
BEN 10 15 $74.895 3 2 13 In Lottery
KUT 7 9 $75.456 4 3 6 In Lottery
INV 6 8 $76.693 5 4 4 In Lottery
EDI 11 18 $77.980 6 5 13
MOL 5 5 $79.360 7 6 -1
RGG 8 11 $79.616 8 7 4
DES 11 21 $82.286 9 8 13
CLE 4 3 $83.735 10 9 -6 Out of Lottery
WSS 2 1 $84.660 11 10 -9 Out of Lottery
ALA 10 16 $87.405 12 11 5
KEN 2 2 $89.117 14 12 -10 Out of Lottery
BLK 5 6 $92.250 15 13 -7
TAM 10 17 $93.266 16 14 3
WAR 8 13 $93.432 17 15 -2
BAY 5 7 $93.946 18 16 -9
PIT 13 22 $95.850 19 17 5
VAN 8 14 $99.256 20 18 -4
SEA 8 10 $99.476 21 19 -9
SAL 3 4 $103.080 22 20 -16 Out of Lottery
SWF 13 20 $104.305 23 21 -1
ATL 8 12 $113.136 24 22 -10
NYH 17 23 $59.964 1 23 0 Runner-Up
PEN 15 24 $88.578 13 24 0 Champion







[ Edited Sun Jan 10 2021, 12:54p.m. ]
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KRFL-BayCity
Sun Jan 10 2021, 12:48p.m.
Registered Member #12
Joined: Mon Sep 01 2008, 07:40p.m.

Posts: 798
I have to again disagree with any proposal that would partially be based on salaries of players who are not going to be around due to cuts or expired contracts....

perhaps wait till after cuts and use the average salary of the team since roster size will differ....
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MarkB
Sun Jan 10 2021, 12:57p.m.
Mark Blume

Registered Member #81
Joined: Mon Oct 14 2013, 08:54a.m.

Posts: 1980
KRFL-BayCity wrote ...

I have to again disagree with any proposal that would partially be based on salaries of players who are not going to be around due to cuts or expired contracts....

perhaps wait till after cuts and use the average salary of the team since roster size will differ....



It DOES NOT include salaries of players whose contracts expired and they are not on the team's roster.
Why should we allow teams to cut players to improve their draft position? That makes no sense whatsoever.

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mark
Sun Jan 10 2021, 02:34p.m.
Registered Member #45
Joined: Wed May 05 2010, 11:29p.m.

Posts: 826
I’m willing to try it, but like any system, what’s the unintended consequence. Have to think about it more.

I’m gonna through this out there, because I just thought of it. Can we base draft order on the # of trades a team makes? The more trades the worse your position?
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Salem
Sun Jan 10 2021, 03:10p.m.
Registered Member #25
Joined: Sun Sep 07 2008, 10:07p.m.

Posts: 763
As I have mentioned, I cannot support a system where making good GM decisions is punished. This is a hard no for me.
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MarkB
Sun Jan 10 2021, 03:11p.m.
Mark Blume

Registered Member #81
Joined: Mon Oct 14 2013, 08:54a.m.

Posts: 1980
mark wrote ...

I’m willing to try it, but like any system, what’s the unintended consequence. Have to think about it more.

I’m gonna through this out there, because I just thought of it. Can we base draft order on the # of trades a team makes? The more trades the worse your position?

---------------------------------------
I am against penalizing teams who make trades.
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mark
Sun Jan 10 2021, 03:33p.m.
Registered Member #45
Joined: Wed May 05 2010, 11:29p.m.

Posts: 826
Ok
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mark
Sun Jan 10 2021, 03:41p.m.
Registered Member #45
Joined: Wed May 05 2010, 11:29p.m.

Posts: 826
I’m sure someone has posted this in the past, but what are the current records of teams getting a top 4 pick records to date?
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jonwolgamuth
Sun Jan 10 2021, 04:08p.m.
Registered Member #92
Joined: Sun Jan 28 2018, 01:51p.m.

Posts: 69
Salem wrote ...

As I have mentioned, I cannot support a system where making good GM decisions is punished. This is a hard no for me.


Jeff, I'm trying to understand your contention. I agree with it on its face--good GM decision making should not be punished. But if your team ends with a low PC Action salary the next season, doesn't that mean that the GM made some poor decisions? Or at least got unlucky.

What's the scenario where the GM makes good decisions and their team ends with a low salary based on the PC Action salary value?
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