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mark
Fri Oct 11 2019, 01:03p.m.
Registered Member #45
Joined: Wed May 05 2010, 11:29p.m.

Posts: 584
Some questions?
Does”tanking”enable trading?
Is this a “tanking” league?
Are rookie picks worth less than carded players that are traded for?
Do people who trade a lot win more?
Would this league be better if coaches were playing more meaningful games or less?
If trading were limited to off season trading, would it help?

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noodles
Sat Oct 12 2019, 03:07a.m.
Webmaster

Registered Member #1
Joined: Mon Feb 18 2008, 02:12a.m.

Posts: 1135
I think I can partially answer most of Cleveland Mark's questions after poking around in
the league history.

Does ”tanking” enable trading?
Without a doubt. The current system encourages teams to make a quick decision during
the early weeks of the season as to whether they can win this year or not. If they
decide that they just don't have enough juice to make the playoffs, it only makes
sense to trade away talent (especially on expiring contracts) for future possibility.

Is this a “tanking” league?
See answer above.

Do people who trade a lot win more?
The answer is, for the most part, yes. See the chart I posted earlier and will helpfully append
to the bottom of this post.

Are rookie picks worth less than carded players that are traded for?
This is a really interesting question. To rephrase it, do teams that accumulate
rookie picks through trades eventually outperform teams that trade away their picks for proven
veterans? The answer to that is no. The year to year advantage almost always goes to the teams that trade
away their rookie picks. The reason for that I think is pretty simple. Rookies are a crapshoot and picking
them is a game of speculation. Veterans come with statistically established performance numbers.
Historically, the most successful strategy in the KRFL has been to trade away rookie picks to build
a competitive team in the short term then repeat the process in subsequent seasons. (I'd also argue
that our rules about rookie contracts make it difficult to develop and retain drafted players - one year KEEP or DROP,
the second year SIGN or DROP. It takes a third year for many rookies to reach their potential so maybe
delaying the signing to year three would make rookie picks more valuable.)

Would this league be better if coaches were playing more meaningful games or less?
That is the question this thread is trying to answer. Just what kind of league do we
want to have? For me, anything that promotes parity is a good thing. I'm in favor of
anything that gets us closer to that goal. I prefer a league where the majority of
teams still have a fighting chance to make the playoffs more than halfway into the season. I'm
opposed to a league where a significant percentage of teams each year are giving up early and just
going through the motions. It's simply bad gaming protocol and I can't see how it can be fun for
anybody when they feel that their best approach to playing this year is to lose as many games as possible
in anticipation of the next.

If trading were limited to off season trading, would it help?
This idea has its merits so let's not dismiss it out of hand. It does not limit the quantity or quality
of trades that can be made, it just ends trading after the season begins. After that, teams make the best with
what they have. I know in-season trading can be fun and Mark's idea will be unpopular but it's worthy of
consideration.


Trading and Winning
As requested: a rough survey of the number of trades over 5 years correlated with W-L records over the same period.

While trading has slowed down a bit, surprisingly the number of players and draft picks traded has been relatively consistent.
Avg number of trades per year - 22
Avg number of rookie picks traded - 22
Avg number of players traded - 53

Teams that had 5 winning seasons over the 5 year sample averaged 6 trades per year.
Teams that had 4 winning seasons averaged 4 trades per year.
Teams that had 3 winning seasons averaged 3 trades per year.
Teams that had 2 winning seasons averaged 2 trades per year.
Teams that had 1 winning seasons averaged .3 trades per year.
Teams that had 0 winning seasons averaged 1 trade per year.

Avg number of trades per year by a super bowl winner - 3
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