1) Track Record So how did I do last year? Fantastic. I nailed 2/3rds of the league within two games. The biggest whiff was Bensalem who I thought was poised for a breakout season. Instead of the 11-5 Super Bowl contender I predicted, they finished a dismal 4-11-1. 2) NFC vs. AFC While the AFC has dominated the league in recent years, the trend continues that the league is moving towards greater parity although the NFC still needs a year or three to catch up. 3) Not a lot of difference between this year and last. There's been very little movement in terms of my strength ratings between this year and last. The biggest changes in fortune involve PST, who sucked even worse than I expected last year but who should win their division this season, BEN, who tumbles far from the lofty expectations of last year, CLE who inverts their 2015 record of 12-4 to a predicted record of 4-12, and BAY who could win the conference after a terrible 3-13 campaign. The team to watch out for is ALA who had a losing 5-11 run last year but is, on paper, the presumptive favorite to win the whole kaboodle. 4) New Rating System For no real reason I went to a three point system this year (as opposed to the five points I used in the past). 1 = below average, 2 = average, 3 = above average. QB/WR/RB/OL/DL/LB/DB for a total of of 21 possible points. Unfortunately, I lost the ratings I made by position so only the total is listed. Thanks to Mark Hackworth (CLE) for adding his two cents on these ratings.
NFC Outlook
Team (Strength) (Last Year's Record) Predicted Finish
PST (16) (5-11) 11-5 - Big Rebound KUT (13) (8-7-1) 8-8 - Treading Water WAR (12) (9-7) 7-9 - Slight Decline BEN (11) (4-11-1) 4-12 - Fan Grumbling
BRI (15) (13-3) 12-4 - Still the Best of the Division SWF (13) (8-8) 9-7 - Could Vie LON (13) (6-10) 8-8 - Improved But Not There Yet KEN (13) (6-10) 7-9 - See LON
ATL (17) (12-4) 11-5 - Will Be in the Mix BAY (16) (3-13) 11-5 - Return to Glory BAR (16) (11-5) 11-5 - Anybody's division. (BARCELONA (formerly CCC)) Sorry to see Ralph go but happy that Roberto is back. BRX (13) (5-11) 6-10 - Same
AFC Outlook
SAL (17) (10-6) 12-4 - Should win the division. RVC (15) (9-7) 10-6 - Will Make Noise SEA (13) (7-9) 7-9 - Clone of Last Year WSS (12) (6-10) 6-10 - Looking For A Way to Get Over the Hump
LVR (17) (15-1) 12-4 - Lessened But Still Potent VAN (17) (10-6) 11-5 - Could Take The Division RGG (15) (7-9) 9-7 - Better Than Expected INV (12) (3-13) 5-11 - Slight Uptick
ALA (18) (5-11) 13-3 - Most Improved NYH (16) (13-3) 12-4 - Always a Winner TAM (15) (4-12) 8-8 - Big Step Forward CLE (11) (12-4) 4-12 - From the Top to the Bottom
ALA (13-3) 16-0 NYH (12-4) 13-3 TAM (8-8) 4-12 CLE (4-12) 4-12
I picked four out of six division winners correctly, missed on Brick, and didn't make a call in the NFC South. I was 8 - 2 in correctly picking the playoff teams. Got 3 of four wild card teams but didn't predict the great season by Bronx. All told, not bad.
